Concept Select is one of the most critical stages in field development. At this point, operators commit to a development path that shapes billions in CAPEX, long-term recovery, and project risk.

Traditionally, Concept Select studies evaluate only a handful of options against limited uncertainties. This narrow view risks missing opportunities for co-development, overlooking dependencies between choices, and creating alignment challenges when stakeholders are asked to commit with only partial visibility.

For Shell, the challenge was to evaluate integrated development concepts under a wide range of uncertainties – from production profiles and oil price scenarios to discount rates and brownfield integrity – while testing the robustness of those concepts against risks such as schedule delays, cost escalation, ullage, and end-of-field-life constraints.