Solution

Strategic Capacity Planning

Strategic Capacity Planning

Guiding Supply Chain Investments in Nigeria
Guiding Supply Chain Investments in Nigeria
Screenshot of computer simulation
Screenshot of computer simulation

From reactive choices to robust, long-term strategies - optimising brewery investments under demand uncertainty.

Client(s)

Heineken

Sector

FMCG

Challenge

Supply & Demand Planning

Decision lens

Investment Planning

Product

-

Geography

Europe

The challenge

The challenge

In Nigeria, Heineken operates nine breweries, with two recently mothballed, each with different capacities, product mixes, and operating costs. To secure long-term growth in a volatile market, leadership faced a critical question: how to plan the right brewery capacity for the next 5–10 years.


The choices were complex. Each site could be expanded, made more efficient, mothballed, reinstated, or closed. Greenfield investments were also on the table. At the same time, demand for beer in Nigeria is highly uncertain, fluctuating with elections, oil prices, and wider economic shifts. Supply chain, operational, and capital costs added further uncertainty.


The result: a decision landscape with billions at stake, where traditional planning risked oversimplification, subjective bias, and missed opportunities.

In Nigeria, Heineken operates nine breweries, with two recently mothballed, each with different capacities, product mixes, and operating costs. To secure long-term growth in a volatile market, leadership faced a critical question: how to plan the right brewery capacity for the next 5–10 years.


The choices were complex. Each site could be expanded, made more efficient, mothballed, reinstated, or closed. Greenfield investments were also on the table. At the same time, demand for beer in Nigeria is highly uncertain, fluctuating with elections, oil prices, and wider economic shifts. Supply chain, operational, and capital costs added further uncertainty.


The result: a decision landscape with billions at stake, where traditional planning risked oversimplification, subjective bias, and missed opportunities.

Solution

Dashboard for scenario planning and cost analysis. It includes demand scenarios (Very Low to Very High) with corresponding total cost, CAPEX, and OPEX values. Graphs show total cost, CAPEX, OPEX, demand forecast, capacity, and excess capacity trends from 2025 to 2033. The left panel lists operational options like opening or closing bottling and PET lines across different locations (e.g., Lagos, Ota, Aba). A timeline at the bottom right visualizes project milestones, such as opening new lines or extending brewing capacity.
Dashboard showing scenario-based cost and capacity metrics. The top row has bar charts for Total cost (mln EUR), CAPEX (mln EUR), and OPEX (mln EUR) across five demand scenarios (Very Low, Low, Mid, High, Very High), colored red to green. The bottom row has line charts for Demand (mln hL), Capacity (mln hL), and Excess capacity (mln hL) projected from 2025 to 2033, with scenario lines in corresponding colors. The visual compares how costs, capacity, and excess capacity evolve under different demand assumptions.
Dashboard for scenario planning and cost analysis. It includes demand scenarios (Very Low to Very High) with corresponding total cost, CAPEX, and OPEX values. Graphs show total cost, CAPEX, OPEX, demand forecast, capacity, and excess capacity trends from 2025 to 2033. The left panel lists operational options like opening or closing bottling and PET lines across different locations (e.g., Lagos, Ota, Aba). A timeline at the bottom right visualizes project milestones, such as opening new lines or extending brewing capacity.
Dashboard showing scenario-based cost and capacity metrics. The top row has bar charts for Total cost (mln EUR), CAPEX (mln EUR), and OPEX (mln EUR) across five demand scenarios (Very Low, Low, Mid, High, Very High), colored red to green. The bottom row has line charts for Demand (mln hL), Capacity (mln hL), and Excess capacity (mln hL) projected from 2025 to 2033, with scenario lines in corresponding colors. The visual compares how costs, capacity, and excess capacity evolve under different demand assumptions.
Dashboard for scenario planning and cost analysis. It includes demand scenarios (Very Low to Very High) with corresponding total cost, CAPEX, and OPEX values. Graphs show total cost, CAPEX, OPEX, demand forecast, capacity, and excess capacity trends from 2025 to 2033. The left panel lists operational options like opening or closing bottling and PET lines across different locations (e.g., Lagos, Ota, Aba). A timeline at the bottom right visualizes project milestones, such as opening new lines or extending brewing capacity.
Dashboard showing scenario-based cost and capacity metrics. The top row has bar charts for Total cost (mln EUR), CAPEX (mln EUR), and OPEX (mln EUR) across five demand scenarios (Very Low, Low, Mid, High, Very High), colored red to green. The bottom row has line charts for Demand (mln hL), Capacity (mln hL), and Excess capacity (mln hL) projected from 2025 to 2033, with scenario lines in corresponding colors. The visual compares how costs, capacity, and excess capacity evolve under different demand assumptions.

We developed a strategic capacity planning tool that gives Heineken a transparent view of capacity options across all nine breweries, plus potential new sites.


Instead of testing a few scenarios manually, the tool systematically explores every option: moving production or packaging lines, brownfield expansions, mothballing or reinstating existing sites, and new greenfield investments. Each is evaluated against Heineken’s decision metrics - discounted cost, capex, and opex.


The tool delivers not just the lowest-cost solutions for given demand forecasts, but also the most robust strategies across a wide range of demand uncertainties. It highlights “no regret” options - near-term decisions that remain attractive in every scenario - giving leadership clarity and confidence in their path forward.

Results

Clarity on strategy

identified optimal and robust capacity plans across a 10-year horizon.

Confidence in decisions

transparent trade-offs between cost, timing, and risk.

Practical guidance

surfaced “no regret” options that guide near-term action, even under uncertainty.

Results

Clarity on strategy

identified optimal and robust capacity plans across a 10-year horizon.

Confidence in decisions

transparent trade-offs between cost, timing, and risk.

Practical guidance

surfaced “no regret” options that guide near-term action, even under uncertainty.

Results

Clarity on strategy

identified optimal and robust capacity plans across a 10-year horizon.

Confidence in decisions

transparent trade-offs between cost, timing, and risk.

Practical guidance

surfaced “no regret” options that guide near-term action, even under uncertainty.

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