Solution

Production Allocation

Production Allocation

Bringing Transparency to Uncertainty in a SE Asian Offshore Asset
Bringing Transparency to Uncertainty in a SE Asian Offshore Asset
Close-up of industrial equipment on an offshore oil and gas platform, showing a large white pressure vessel surrounded by yellow steel structures, pipes, and railings with the ocean in the background.
Close-up of industrial equipment on an offshore oil and gas platform, showing a large white pressure vessel surrounded by yellow steel structures, pipes, and railings with the ocean in the background.

Turning a black box into a transparent process - giving Shell clearer visibility into production allocation and the confidence to act on uncertainty.

Client(s)

BSP

Sector

Oil & Gas

Challenge

-

Decision lens

Decision Confidence

Product

-

Geography

Asia-Pacific

The challenge

The challenge

In one of Shell’s assets, production allocation - the process of assigning total sales volumes back to individual wells - was creating challenges.


With ~200 producing wells across eight fields, reliable allocation was critical for business decisions such as: identifying infill opportunities, deciding when to blow down gas caps, or preparing wells and fields for decommissioning.


But the current method had major weaknesses. Allocation was based on well production potentials (CPLs), adjusted by a reconciliation factor across the whole asset. Wells tested frequently were “penalised” compared to wells with sparse or no testing. Uncertainty in CPLs was not quantified, meaning decision-makers had little visibility into the confidence behind the numbers. This created gridlock and risk of misinformed choices.

In one of Shell’s assets, production allocation - the process of assigning total sales volumes back to individual wells - was creating challenges.


With ~200 producing wells across eight fields, reliable allocation was critical for business decisions such as: identifying infill opportunities, deciding when to blow down gas caps, or preparing wells and fields for decommissioning.


But the current method had major weaknesses. Allocation was based on well production potentials (CPLs), adjusted by a reconciliation factor across the whole asset. Wells tested frequently were “penalised” compared to wells with sparse or no testing. Uncertainty in CPLs was not quantified, meaning decision-makers had little visibility into the confidence behind the numbers. This created gridlock and risk of misinformed choices.

Solution

Process flow diagram labeled CPDP-07, CPPP-07, and CPBP-07 showing wells connected to vessels V-210 and V-200 through pipelines with various valves, flow indicators, and connections. The diagram uses color-coded lines for different pipe sizes and schedules, illustrating fluid routing between wells, vessels, and surge systems.
Line chart titled “Field: MM, Allocation, Uncertainty Method 2” showing oil production from 2017 to 2023 in cubic meters per day. Multiple lines represent starting means, final means, minimum/maximum ranges, and BSP allocation, with shaded areas indicating uncertainty ranges. The overall trend shows fluctuations followed by a gradual decline.
Process flow diagram labeled CPDP-07, CPPP-07, and CPBP-07 showing wells connected to vessels V-210 and V-200 through pipelines with various valves, flow indicators, and connections. The diagram uses color-coded lines for different pipe sizes and schedules, illustrating fluid routing between wells, vessels, and surge systems.
Line chart titled “Field: MM, Allocation, Uncertainty Method 2” showing oil production from 2017 to 2023 in cubic meters per day. Multiple lines represent starting means, final means, minimum/maximum ranges, and BSP allocation, with shaded areas indicating uncertainty ranges. The overall trend shows fluctuations followed by a gradual decline.
Process flow diagram labeled CPDP-07, CPPP-07, and CPBP-07 showing wells connected to vessels V-210 and V-200 through pipelines with various valves, flow indicators, and connections. The diagram uses color-coded lines for different pipe sizes and schedules, illustrating fluid routing between wells, vessels, and surge systems.
Line chart titled “Field: MM, Allocation, Uncertainty Method 2” showing oil production from 2017 to 2023 in cubic meters per day. Multiple lines represent starting means, final means, minimum/maximum ranges, and BSP allocation, with shaded areas indicating uncertainty ranges. The overall trend shows fluctuations followed by a gradual decline.

We developed an alternative production allocation model that explicitly accounted for uncertainty.


Using well test frequency and time since last test, the tool quantified uncertainty in each well’s CPL. This enabled allocation scenarios that reflected not just a single reconciled number, but a range of plausible outcomes.


The approach allowed Shell to:


  • test different allocation methods transparently,

  • compare scenarios against the official production database,

  • and identify where better metering or well testing would have the biggest impact on reducing uncertainty.


Instead of a single, deterministic allocation, Shell gained a framework for uncertainty-aware decision-making.

Results

Transparent allocation

scenarios showed how uncertainty in CPLs impacts production attribution.

Better decisions

infill drilling, gas cap blowdown, and decommissioning strategies supported by clearer evidence.

Smarter investment in metering

visibility into which wells would benefit most from improved testing or metering.

Results

Transparent allocation

scenarios showed how uncertainty in CPLs impacts production attribution.

Better decisions

infill drilling, gas cap blowdown, and decommissioning strategies supported by clearer evidence.

Smarter investment in metering

visibility into which wells would benefit most from improved testing or metering.

Results

Transparent allocation

scenarios showed how uncertainty in CPLs impacts production attribution.

Better decisions

infill drilling, gas cap blowdown, and decommissioning strategies supported by clearer evidence.

Smarter investment in metering

visibility into which wells would benefit most from improved testing or metering.

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Want to learn more about this solution? Get in touch and ask for a demo.

Contact us

Want to learn more about this solution? Get in touch and ask for a demo.

Contact us

Want to learn more about this solution? Get in touch and ask for a demo.

Contact us

Want to learn more about this solution? Get in touch and ask for a demo.

Contact us